Russia’s road freight market sees slight recovery but remains unstable

In the first quarter of 2025, domestic road freight rates in Russia dropped by 12–14%, with the supply of available trucks exceeding the demand for cargo. However, March saw a modest increase in freight volumes and a slight revival of the spot market, with freight rates beginning to rise. The ATI.SU index, which reflects average transportation rates across Russia, rose by 2.2% in the first week of April. There is a possibility that this upward trend in rates could become sustainable. Nevertheless, these changes are not yet significant enough for transport companies to feel real relief—freight tariffs are hovering around the breakeven point and are often even below cost. According to representatives of transport companies, many carriers ended last year with negative profitability, and the trend of reducing vehicle fleets continues. As a result, with demand cautiously forecasted to grow in the second half of the year, a shortage of trucks in the industry can be expected. If freight volumes fail to rise, rates may continue to fall and the available fleet may shrink even further.